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India-Bangladesh Ties: NO SIGN OF REVIVAL, Prof (Dr) DK Giri, 18 April 2025 |
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Round
The World
New Delhi, 18 April 2025
India-Bangladesh Ties
NO SIGN OF REVIVAL
Prof (Dr) DK Giri
(Professor of
Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions)
The latest in India-Bangladesh ties is the
ban on imports of yarn from India by Bangladesh through land and ports. It may
have been done in retaliation to New Delhi stopping the
transshipment facility for Bangladeshi goods through ports and airports.
This act by India has apparently been provoked by Mohammed Yunus’ ‘Freudian
slip’ or deliberate statement during his tour to China. He said that Northeast
India is landlocked, Bangladesh is the guardian of the ocean for the region and
could be the gateway for China’s influence in Northeast India. So, the
tit-for-tat seems to be the case between India and Bangladesh since Yunus
became the Head of Bangladesh government under the sobriquet of chief advisor
to the interim Bangladesh government.
Mohammad Yunus is 84-year-oldhas been an
academic, with little experience in politics. He earned unrivalled reputation
through the Grameen Bank, an institution he created to lend money to poor rural
women entrepreneurs to do business and earn their living. This scheme became
such a big success that Yunus was awarded with the highly prestigious Noble
prize. His international reputation persuaded the Bangladesh military to
install him as the ‘titular head’ of the government. Bangladesh military still
has the remote.
Be that as it may, under the pressure from
the military and from pro-Pak and pro-China but anti-India forces, Yunus is
behaving strangely. He did show some of his own self when he appealed to the rioters
to stop tormenting the Hindu minorities. But that was a natural human display
of sympathy and solidarity. The physical violence may have subsided, but Hindus
continue to live in fear and insecurities. This is a major cause of concern for
Indians and New Delhi. Second, Yunus, due to his geo-political inexperience, is
playing into the manipulation of China. Beijing is deviously sneaking into
South Asia, to encircle India by a hostile neighborhood.
Beijing mollycoddled Nepal against India by
flaunting it surplus money. It did the same in Maldives, Sri Lanka and now
Bangladesh. Pakistan is a different case. It has become a vassal state of
China. Beijing uses Pakistan against India wherever it sniffs an opening. The
Chinese game plan aims at browbeating India by seducing away her smaller neighbours.
It is indeed sad that Bangladesh fails to see
the long-term benefits of associating with India. The shared history,
cultural affinities and economic mutuality should not be lost on its
leadership. The present young generation of Bangladeshis may not remember the
pain and horror of the 1971 partition. Without the active intervention of
India, the violent and ghoulish occupation of the country by Pakistan would
have continued unabated. America was trying to caution as well as counsel India
against it. But India and its Prime Minister Indira did. The rest is
history.
Seikh Hasina gratefully acknowledges the
contribution of India to the liberation of Bangladesh. She had gone through the
trauma and torment with her father, Seikh Mujibur Rehman, who spearheaded the
liberation movement.At any rate, one could not live in the past. New Delhi
could hardly expect eternal obligation of Bangladesh for liberating it.
Remember how Germany psychologically turned against America although it rebuilt
the war-torn country with the latter's money that came under the Marshall plan.
The mistake of basking in the reflected glory
of the past should not continue to be committed by India. New Delhi has to deal
with Bangladesh as it is today-- rising Islamic radicalism, a generation
unconnected with the liberation movement, caught in crosshairs of India vs
Pakistan and China, and Trump’s American given Yunus’ expressed liking for
Democrats.
Second, New Delhi should not repeat the
strategic mistake it did in Nepal at one point in time. That is when it
supported the Madhesis in relation to the government in Kathmandu. New Delhi
should deal with Bangladesh, not just Seikh Hasina. The resentment, and later,
revolt occurred against Hasina when she made reservation in jobs for 1971
freedom fighters' family members. They were already getting a pension. Hasina
became overconfident heedless of the shimmering discontent that blew in her
face consuming her government. She should sort out herself and her party
and possibly plough her way back into politics of Bangladesh. It is the
internal political matter of her country. India giving asylum to her is another
matter independent of the political turmoil in Dhaka.
Third, New Delhi should not let Dhaka
slip away into the Chinese camp. India is presently using the carrot and stick
policy. The suspension of transshipment facility has hit Bangladesh hard,
especially its garment industry, which is its major export industry. Thousands
of workers are scared of losing their jobs. Bangladeshi media has reacted
sharply for incurring the displeasure of New Delhi and the consequent
cancellation of the facility.
Finally, New Delhi should treat the
deterioration of India-Bangladesh ties as a consequence of Chinese attempt to
sting India through her neighbours. India can no longer ignore the hard fact
that China is her biggest threat. New Delhi should deal with China, but not get
carried away by Beijing’s deceptive benevolence of granting easy visas to 85000
Indians. Beijing’s overtures are a desperate reaction to American tearing
tariffs of 245 per cent on Chinese exports.
Some of us have written trees of articles to
alert South block to the lurking menace of China. The External Affairs Minister,
thankfully, has recently publicly acknowledged that India could no longer
ignore that China is a problem. New Delhi’s robust geopolitical strategy
towards China should restore friendship and normalcy with all her neighbours
except Pakistan who is incorrigible at its best.
At the same time, Dhaka should do well to
learn from the bankruptcy that Sri Lanka plunged into by embracing China’s
debt-infected investment policy. Sri Lankan then president had to flee the
country to escape the anger and despair of the people that spontaneously
spilled onto the streets in protest and picketing. One Prime Minister of
Bangladesh also fled her country albeiton different grounds. Let
there be no repeat of another leader escaping the country.
India-Bangladesh relations consist of
multiple interconnected ties. Bangladesh should seek to snap them at its own
peril. India should also be sensitive to the current political instability in
Bangladesh which would pass. New Delhi’s neigbours are wary of its big-brother
attitude which stems from the comparative bigger size of the country. New Delhi
has done well not to behave as one. The same attitude should permeate New
Delhi’s relations with her neigbours. Let
the wise words of the former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
continue to ring in the South Block, “We can change our friends, but we cannot
change our neighbours”. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Global Trade War: INDIA’S RESPONSE, By Prof. DK Giri, 11 April 2025 |
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Round
The World
New Delhi, 11 April 2025
Global Trade War
INDIA’S RESPONSE
By Prof. DKGiri
(Professor of
Practice, NIIS Group, Bhubaneswar)
The unilateral and universal tariff imposed
by Donald Trump had shaken the world. It has disrupted the global economy--
supply chains, export regimes and employment. What is worse, it threatens a
global war on trade. Some observers are talking about ensuing depression as
well as recession. My purpose in this piece is to assess the possibility of a
global trade war, and to examine India’s response to the emerging economic
scenario.
First of all, what is the casus belli of this
prognosis of a global war caused by Trump’s action? There are divided opinions
on it. One school of thought says that Trump’s tariff is an instrument to meet
his political objectives. Second, it is to prevent China from overtaking
America on trade and later, on GDP. Third, it is Trump’s one figment of
thinking to fix the American economy in the line of MAGA-- Making America Great
Again. These three perspectives merit some discussion.
Before we step on the causes and consequences
of, as well as response to Trump’s dramatic economic action, it is in order
that we scan the tariff he has thrown at 60 countries of the world.Trump
imposed tariff on average 10 percent affecting 60 countries. Individually, 26
per cent on India, 20 per cent on the European Union, 46 percent Vietnam, 24
percent Japan, 25 percent South Korea, 36 percent Thailand, 49 percent
Cambodia, 40 percent Sri Lanka. China’s cases significant. The tariff is 34 per
cent, if we take 20 per cent already existing against China, it is 54 per cent.
Trump is no doubt targeting China. He has imposed heavy tariff on Cambodia and
Vietnam as Chinese investment to the US is being routed through these
countries. China has declared that it would retaliate. The retribution by China
is construed as the beginning of a trade war.
Coming to the reasons for the Trumpian
tariff, the politics of the action may be that Trump wants to geo-politicise
trade to bargain with each country. By imposing tariffs universally, he sought
to disrupt the alliances, integrations, regionalisation and so on and then,
bargain with each country to secure their political and economic allegiance.
Trump is decidedly a transactionalist and loves to negotiate deals of all
kinds. That is how he can maintain the supremacy of America.
The competition by China is a more plausible
argument. The Chinese world market share of manufacturing goods is about 32 per
cent whereas that of America is around 16 per cent. The Chinese GDP is 19
trillion compared to 29 trillion of USA. Trump would not want China to catch up
or overtake. The American trade deficit with China is about 1 trillion. By
levying high tariffs on China, Trump perhaps wants to make up the trade deficit
and revive its own manufacturing sector.
The third reason follows from the second,
which is fixing the American economy. Manufacturing in any country creates jobs
and generates growth. Unemployment in America has been rising. Hence, Trump
wants to rejuvenate the domestic manufacturing sector by reducing competition
from foreign countries. It is another matter that consumers will be forced to
buy foreign goods at a higher price in the absence of domestic production. This
will lead to inflation. When American buyers cannot affordat such suddenly
inflated rates, money circulation will shrink leading to stagnation. Both
combine to cause what economists call a portmanteau,
stagflation(stagnation+inflation). This will have the contrary consequence for
the American economy.
Are the tariffs reciprocal as claimed by the
Trump Administration? No, they are protectionist. By any calculation, they are
not reciprocal. One formula used for levying tariffs is to take the total trade
deficit with a country and take half of that and levy it as a tariff. But that
is not the case with each country.
Will the tariffs lead to a trade war? It
seems a remote possibility. Remember, the total imports of America from the
World are 13 per cent. So, the rest 87 per cent is immune to the Trumpian
tariff. So, if the countries create alternative markets and make alliances,
they can withstand the tariff tension on their economies. For instance, it is
reported that the trade ministers of Japan, South Korea and China met a few
days ago to curate a trade alliance of some kind to counter American action.
Also, Trump is known for changing his mind.
If he finds the going is tough, he will change the course. He is testing the waters.
He had made a tariff hike his poll promise. This is to perhaps fulfil that. He
will roll it back if it boomerangs on America. At the time of writing, he has
declared 90 days pause on the tariff except on China.
How is India responding to it? One strategy is
keeping quiet in view of the strategic proximity between two countries. Second
is to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement quite soon. New Delhi is aiming to
sign it when Trump arrives in Delhi for Quad Summit later this year. And the
third, which it may perforce do is to carry out the much-needed trade reforms
and revisit some of the tariffs in a few sectors. For instance, according to
the Whitehouse factsheet, India imposes 50 per cent tariff on apples from the
USA. Is it necessary?
As per the same factsheet, New Delhi has NTBs
like quality control and certification against certain American items on
telecom, chemicals and medical devices. Those can go. Trump says India is the
tariff king of the world. Indian economy had been dubbed a protectionist
economy bordering on dirigisme from 1947 to 89. It opened up only in 1991.
After that momentous period, reforms stalled.
That said, the loss of India’s revenue from
exports to USA is calculated at 3.6 billion dollars which is 0.1 or 0.2 per
cent of India’s GDP. Should the negotiations fail,India can live with that. But
the larger point is that India should treat this as ironic opportunity like it
did in 1991 foreign currency crisis and 1998 Pokhran-II consequences and fix
its own economy especially the trade regime. Each crisis could be a blessing in
disguise. India could negotiate with America, not for years on end as it has
been with EU, but it must put its house in order. There is a deepening
dichotomy between political rhetoric and economic reality. That must end sooner
than later.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Op Sindoor: Pak Badnam Hua: DARLINGS, KIS KE LIYE!, By Poonam I Kaushish, 13 May 2025 |
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Political Diary
New
Delhi, 13 May 2025
Op Sindoor: Pak Badnam Hua,
DARLINGS, KIS KE LIYE!
By Poonam I Kaushish
Every
tragedy falls into two parts: a complication is followed by denouncement and
unraveling, said Aristotle. Pakistan learnt the hard way post 22 April’s terror
strike killing 22 tourists in Pahalgam. In this battle, Prime Minister Modi has
come out trumps. Not only did he payback for Pahalgam, change the terms of
engagement “Water and blood cannot flow together” but showed the world “Jo kaha woh kiya! Ye nyay ki akhand pratigya
hai.”
In
just 25 minutes Operation Sindoor, India defined a new normal: Raising
Pakistan’s cost of a terror strike. Whereby, New Delhi made it unequivocally
clear to Islamabad that terrorist incidents will neither be ignored nor
tolerated. A calculated doctrinal of zero tolerance to terrorism. Whereby, it
is willing to do the job that Pakistan is unwilling or cannot do --- Eliminate
terrorists.
Importantly, India
sent three clear messages: Kashmir is no longer a bilateral issue between
neighbours. It is no longer an issue at all. The only real matter between the
two is Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Two, it has no compunctions of crossing
the Line of Control (LoC) and striking Lakshar-e-Taiba
and Jaish-e-Moammed’s bases Muridke
and Bahawalpur. Alongside, debilitating strikes on over 12 military bases
including Lahore and Jacobabad.
Thereby, reiterating every
act of terrorism will be considered an “act of war” and receive proportionate
response. Three, suspension of Indus Waters Treaty and trade bans will continue
keeping relations strained given Pakistan's economic and financial constraints.
Clearly,
Pakistan has got caught between a rock and hard place even as it conveys not
rolling over and playing dead by starting a new cyclical political-economy of
violence on military and civilian infrastructure. But to what avail? Showcasing
to the world be it US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar etc
that it is the fountainhead of terror. Earning it the ignominy: Pakistan
badnam hua,darling kiske liye!
Little
did it realize that terrorism and escalation by State actors need funding that
leaves, however, nebulous a money trail. This is what got Islamabad on the grey
list of Financial Action Task Force, the global money laundering and terrorist
financing watchdog.
Both
sides have made their point. Both used military escalation to test the other's
resolve and find strengths and weaknesses of their defenses. Both realize they
cannot prevail in a war without inflicting and sustaining massive destruction.
Undoubtedly, this precarious
unpredictable uneasy truce has triggered long term instability and hostilities between
the warring neighbours. It highlights the fragility of such agreements in the
context of deep-seated mistrust and the complex dynamics of civil-military
relations, particularly in Pakistan.
In fact since 2019
Indo-Pak ties have been delicate as there have been no diplomatic engagement and
New Delhi and Islamabad are in the race for armed one upmanship and inflicting
damage. Since 2014 India has had three military crisis with Pakistan, Uri 2016
, Balakot 2019 and now.
Underscoring this
paradigm shift in its Pak policy, New Delhi made plain that past precedents are
not binding on it in its dealing with recalcitrant Islamabad and its
terrorists’ army. This was communicated to over 25 countries. Modi’s success
internationally can be gauged by the firm US backing to the strikes,
notwithstanding President Trump taking credit for the truce.
Despite India’s upper
hand, not a few feel discontent over agreeing to a ceasefire arguing Pakistan
should not have been spared this time. This is understandable but a deeper
analysis shows India achieved its intended goals by inflicting significant
damage on Pakistan through its operation.
Some observers believe this lull will hold in
the short term due to international pressure with both countries recognising
costs of escalation. Or it’s a ruse to reinforce before another offensive.
Perhaps. The worry is the long term instability that these hostilities have
triggered. The next Pahalgam attack would mean a full scale war. And this time
it will start on a much higher escalatory ladder.
Undeniably, though
the de-escalation might mark the end of India-Pakistan worst military
confrontation in 25 years, relations with Pakistan are likely to continue to be
challenging and will not lead easily to an enduring peace. Specially, till
Islamabad shuts its tap on terrorism.
New Delhi has managed
to push Pakistan to the margins of international relevance. Islamabad’s goal is
to drag India’s confrontation so that the world starts viewing them as equals.
But our goals are greater. Economic power-house and self reliance. We cannot
let our guard down given that a hurt Islamabad might be licking its wounds but
is readying to fight another day.
True, it is not in
the interest of either country or peace and stability in the region to have a
larger military conflict. Asserted a defence strategist “New Delhi is facing two
difficult relationships at the same time – Pakistan and China. This escalation
has created a two-front problem for India. India's Pakistan problem does not
exist in isolation. It comes with other geopolitical factors like our difficult
relationship with China. It has to manage all of this along with its ambitions
of becoming a superpower, its growing economy and favourable external climate
globally.”
With an economically
and politically bankrupt Pakistan has less to lose and more to gain. India understands
future containment requires more than kinetic action, it needs to force
Islamabad’s hand by taking out terrorist infrastructure and its funding routes
along-with shoring up international support in a Trump-skittled world. Make
Pakistan’s Establishment know that wages of war are inexorably high.
For now, both
militaries remain on high alert but the risk of further flare-ups --- for
instance through misinterpreting drone activity or artillery fire --- remains
high, especially in contested areas along the LoC. Pakistan will fight tooth
and nail for the abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty by India
What next? New Delhi
new assertiveness would need all the wisdom and restraint to ensure that it
remains in control of the Indo-Pak script as both have limited room for
imposing costs on each other, without risking major catastrophe. With Pakistan
weak or strong there is no avoiding the political process in the sub-continent.
South Block knows
only too well a war with Pakistan would cast a shadow over India’s growing
economy—it’s the fastest-growing big economy in the world—as well as raising
international alarm. Holding out threat of a nuclear threat is more of a
deterrent as it a well established norm that since Hiroshima in 1945 technology
in a unipolar world talk of nuclear war is baloney. Hence the plan to escalate
this diplomatically and politically.
It remains to be seen
if the latest crisis has strengthened Pakistan Army Chief Gen Munir’s hold over
power or it has cracked open some space for civilian leaders who pushed for
de-escalation despite the Army Chief’s hard line. One hopes it realizes the
dangers of war and results in deeper introspection of its tragic state of
affairs, even as it continues the muscle-flexing and war rhetoric.
In sum much work is
needed going forward to ensure we don't see a repeat of this crisis and that
should be the primary focus for both sides. It will take a lot more to address
the long-term distrust between the two countries. As a rising global power,
India has a lot to lose and has a lot to manage because of this escalation. The
next few years will tell us how it's going to play out.
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Kamandal = Mandal 2.0: NOT WHO, BUT WHAT, By Poonam I Kaushish, 6 May 2025 |
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Political Diary
New
Delhi, 6 May 2025
Kamandal = Mandal 2.0
NOT WHO, BUT WHAT
By Poonam I Kaushish
Circa
1901: “I don’t believe in caste in the modern sense as it connotes distinction
in status and is an evil,” Mahatma Gandhi. After him, Ambedkar waged a
relentless struggle against caste arguing for its annihilation to rebuild a
social democracy. Alas, from a social phenomenon that divided people, caste has
become central to our political system. Not who, but what you are.
Circa
2025: Call it a turning point or milestone every Party wants to know the caste
composition of a voter, constituency before selecting a candidate. Succinctly,
its’ the State catching up with the lived socio-economic and political reality
as it shapes hierarchy and discrimination, culture and belonging. That too, by using
Ambedkar’s name to perpetuate a system that he fought.
BJP
which battled caste surveys that militated against its concept of Hindu unity
has today embraced it marking a momentous ideological shift. Reason? Caste is
at the heart of Indian politics as a mobilization tool polarised on caste basis
with elections being fought on caste considerations. Voters are regressively
but decisively voting along caste lines. The upsurge of OBCs and their demand
for a more equitable participation and representation make quotas and queues
the centerpiece of affirmative action policies at the Centre.
Post
its’ below par performance in last year’s Lok Sabha polls specially in UP BJP
decided to bite the bullet aided by RSS putting its seal of approval and Bihar allies
JD (U) and LJP plugging it. Blunting India Bloc shrill demand for caste census,
it wrested the idea and announced it. No matter, it’s recent assertion of
recognizing only four castes: women, farmers, poor and youth.
Besides,
it is worried about possible OBC attrition in elections in crucial States Bihar
this year, followed by Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala 2026, the Saffron Sangh now
seeks a broader social coalition that can translate into pan-India support.
With Kamandal (Hindutva) as a steady
ideological base, BJP is now experimenting with MandaI 2.0 aimed at socially inclusive vote consolidation.
Consequently,
as caste census becomes the central focus in national politics the Party
doesn’t want to remain a mute spectator, instead become an active proponent
signalling its intent to lead rather than resist by including caste enumeration
in the coming census.
In
fact, a BJP insider avers the Party has repeatedly recalibrated its social
engineering to suit evolving political realities and forms Modi’s rise in 2014 when it shed its ‘suit boot ki sarkar’ image through welfare schemes like Ujjwala Awas Yojana to appeal to poorer sections across castes. Post Supreme
Court’s dilution of the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act 2018, NDA Government
restored its provision despite backlash from upper castes in States.
Thereafter,
it introduced a 10% Economically Weaker Section (EWS) to retain upper castes
votes. Thereby, showcasing its responsiveness to social undercurrents which
worked in Maharashtra and Haryana but not Jharkhand resulting in two
consecutive defeats.
Pertinently,
Bihar, Karnataka and Telangana have completed caste surveys. Interestingly, the
results also subtly endorsed the idea of giving representation to Muslims based
on their caste by categorising various Muslim communities under different caste
umbrellas.
But
what will be done with that knowledge? BJP’s ally in Bihar JD(U) released its
caste survey in October 2023 as part of RLD-Congress Mahagathbandhan whereby
63% of the State’s 13 crore population belonged to castes under EBC and OBC
categories SC 19.65% and upper castes 15.52%.
In
Congress-ruled Karnataka Muslims are the single largest community 12.87%, next SC
12% with politically and economically powerful Lingayats 11.09% third, Vokkaligas10.31%
fourth, Kurubas 7.38%, ST 7.1%, ST Valmiki-Nayaka 30,31,656 (5.07%). In Telangana
56.33% are Backward Classes, SCs/STs 17.43% and 10.45%, Muslim 12.56%.
Currently, BJP sees OBCs
as two blocks --- dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends to woo
dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and
Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes
and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their
communities.
Both BJP and Congress
recognize they have to address caste as a political category, not through
patronage. True, enumerating caste will help with accurate information ---
size, literacy levels, occupational structures. It helps structuring
opportunity and social mobility. It influences choices and trajectories from
education, employment, birth, marriage and death ritiuals. It would immediately
be visible if a caste is denied basic facilities and infra.
A
caste census would help address historical injustices and discrimination, be
useful in formulating appropriate policies to target Government welfare schemes
and policies ensuring they reach intended beneficiaries. Thereby, giving the
rootless down-trodden a new identity and attitudinal changes.
Questionably,
none are wiser how JD(U) or Congress-ruled Karnataka and Telangana have used
surveys for targeted interventions since there release? Also, caste sizes will
always be a hot potato. See how Karnataka is facing deluge of accusations of
inaccuracy from both within and BJP. What use caste enumeration if its outcome
is limited to power politics?
Already,
BJP is worried about the running feud between UP’s upper caste Rajput Chief
Minister Yogi with OBC MLAs alongside OBC allies Apna Dali and Nishad Parties
Anupriya Patel and Sanjay Nishad. As also in Bihar.
Indisputably,
caste is a major socio-political fault line which will influence political
alignments and voter choices and form the core of affirmative action by the
State. A census will force Parties to reset their approach to political
representation questions and reshape their stance on reservation.
Truth
is Governments have limited capacity to wholesale improve socio-economic
inequalities as caste numbers are likely to spur agitations for more quotas in
the name of affirmative action which is all a Government can do. To pull people
out of economic backwardness Government needs to facilitate economic
investment, education and training of youth for employment.
Without
these pillars no amount of data collected and collated it is going to be status
quo for those discriminated against and forced to remain socially backward.
Fundamental to progress is education, health, mobility, law and order and
availability and access to justice. A caste census is not vital to ensure this. Also it could
ensnare one in an ‘identity trap’ which should be dealt with simultaneously.
A
lot will depend on how the caste questionnaire is designed along-with
connecting the dots between data and Government policy. Certainly, the census
will pave the way for delimitation exercise --- OBC numbers and the gaps they
point to may blunt the North-South fault line. It may lead to demands for
extending quotas and for removing Supreme Court’s cap of 50% reservation.
Clearly,
caste is a slippery slope as Janata Dal’s VP Singh of Mandal 1.0 learnt the
hard way. There are many challenges ahead. For BJP it is a risky gamble as it
goes against its ideological grain and presumed interest of its oldest and
loyal support base. However, this pivot is inescapable as it pursues the idea
of a consolidated Hindu society. If played smartly, it may help the Party sweep
aside the Mandal legacy and assume ownership of OBC empowerment.
In
the ultimate, the fight for getting the upper hand and votes has been reduced
to politics of optics and perception, underscoring present reality and exposes
the socio-political undercurrents at play. Time will tell how the gambit of
caste census plays out and shapes the future of Indian democracy. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Pahalgam Terror Tango: BLEEDING PAK WITH 1000 CUTS, By Poonam I Kaushish, 29 April 2025 |
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Political Diary
New
Delhi, 29 April 2025
Pahalgam Terror Tango
BLEEDING PAK WITH
1000 CUTS
By Poonam I Kaushish
Circa April 16, 2025: Twenty four year-old
Himanshi is exhilarated and dreams of a married
life
with 26 year old Lt Narwal.
Circa April 22, 2025:
Himanshi is widowed. Even as bridal bangles jingle on wrists and sindoor is fresh in her hair reminder of
a honeymoon hacked to death.
Narwal
was among 26 male tourists enjoying their holiday with families in salubrious Baisaran
Pahalgam killed. Words fail me in the horror of the savage terror attack which began
as collating beautiful memories, ended in a page soaked with blood and tears. Plunging
the country into grief and provoking nationwide anger demanding retribution.
Predictably,
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) offshoot The
Resistance Front (TRF) owned up only to retract later in the face of worldwide
condemnation. The denial is disbelieved thanks to the litany of
Pakistani-directed terrorist attacks following 1999 Kargil conflict.
Yet,
one thought post Uri and 2019 Balakot strike to avenge the Pulwama attack on a
78 vehicles convoy of 2500 CRPF jawans travelling from Jammu to Srinagar,
terrorists had learnt a lesson. But one was wrong.
Undoubtedly,
payback will follow. Prime Minister Modi has made plain, “India will identify,
track, punish every terrorist and their backers bigger than they can imagine
and we will pursue them to the ends of Earth.” Already New Delhi has taken
punitive action below the military threshold: Kept 64-year-old Indus Water
Treaty in abeyance, closed Attari border, sent Pakistani visa holders back, expelled
more Pakistani diplomats and withdrawn its attaches from Islamabad.
Yet,
as New Delhi chooses the next course of action it will be difficult to shake of
the sense of despair this kind of terrorism produces. A successful military
operation might be an act of justice. It might restore a sense of confidence in
the Government’s capabilities and perhaps satiate the desire for revenge. But
even if these actions are successful we will continue to remain close to the
edge of an abyss.
As
we have seen this movie once too often, with antecedents going back to the
1980s and 1990s. Whereby, the script is tiresomely familiar: Islamist terror groups
created, armed, trained, and guided by Pakistan’s ISI, kill innocents in India.
Islamabad denies involvement even as groups therein “take credit” for attacks.
The world denounces it. India carefully calibrates its response so as not to
provoke a larger war. Once the tension settles everyone settles back to
business-as-usual. Until it happens again.
Undeniably,
the attack exposes the tenuous links in Pakistan’s ruling troika ----
Establishment, Army and ISI. New Delhi, times out of number forgets that its
neighbour has been nurtured on a military psyche whereby it views India as an
ideological, not solely military problem fed on a staple anti-India tirade
since 1947. For the troika seeped in armed tradition along-with its jihadist
proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith. Succinctly,
described by late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto as “bleeding India with a thousand cuts.”
Pahalgam
shows Pakistan is the biggest enemy of normalcy in Kashmir. Defence strategists
aver Islamabad timed the attack as it is
desperate for wider confrontation to deflect global attention from its own
existence-threatening domestic failings. It wants US, China to get involved.
Confessed Pakistan Defence Minister, “We have been supporting, training and
funding terrorist organisations for three decades as dirty work for the West
--- US and Britain.”
As
India readies for a strong and swift response it should not take the bait,
instead hit Pakistan where it hurts by working closely with Iran, Afghanistan
and China. With US President Trump breathing down its neck Beijing wants to
restore cordial ties with New Delhi. Can it get Islamabad to crackdown on terrorists?
If not, we know it will never abandon its “all-weather friend.”
In
this age of real politik, India will remain at the mercy of terrorist
organizations which will always have the upper hand in choosing the time and
place of the next attack. Our leaders should not be under any illusion that the
death of the fidayeens will deter jihadis operating from Pakistan and
their State sponsors from carrying on their irrational jihad. In fact, they
could raise a lethal phase of violence, notwithstanding Islamabad’s diplomatic
isolation.
What next? New Delhi
needs all its wits, military intelligence, resources, wisdom and restraint to
ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-Pak script and teach Pakistan
their criminal behaviour will exact a heavy price. One way is to adopt the
Israeli Defence Forces strategy which aims to cause the opponent more damage
(quantitatively and qualitatively) than the opponent caused Israel in the same
time span. The fear of punitive retaliation would delay the next conflict and
restrain the enemy's ambitions.
For
the success of any strategy be it combative or “limited” war one needs national
will, great swiftness and sagacity more than readiness to use military power.
War is an option every nation prepares. This entails a clear view of where the
dangers lie, and of what kinds of responses are necessary to meet those
dangers. It includes also a basic, crystalline faith that India is on the right
path and that Kashmir is worth defending.
While
an overt message needs to be sent, covert operations will also have to be
enhanced. Key militant leaders and infrastructure within Pakistan cannot be
allowed to feel secure. India must also employ cyber warfare tactics to disrupt
militant communications and operations.
Consequently,
the success of counter-terrorism lies in degrading LeT, JeM and TRF capabilities,
forcing them to change their intentions and denying them opportunities to
strike. New Delhi needs to think of ways
to neutralise their fast-growing domestic base, availability of hardware and
human resource, collaborative linkages with organized crime, gun runners, drug
syndicates, hawala operators,
subversive radical groups etc.
For any
anti-terrorist operation to succeed one must be focused on the vitals, keeping
a watch on the essentials, deliberate and debate the options and leave the
desirables till the vitals have been achieved and essentials addressed. One
only hopes that whatever action the Government takes is prudent in the larger
sense, not performative or reckless.
Certainly, in this
zero-sum game, muscle-flexing, war rhetoric and one-upmanship will continue
till Kashmir is resolved. Pahalgam’s horror is a stark reminder the policy of “benign
neglect” India had pursued towards Pakistan doesn’t work. We need to be tough
to punish and deter cross-border transgressions. Make clear that protection to
terrorists by Islamabad is unacceptable. They need to be smoked out and bombed,
a la US seals of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad.
Our
leaders must understand the nature of threat and adopt a strategy that’s in
tune with the situation. Any Indian response to Pahalgam will therefore involve
a mix of measures targeting Pakistan and international community. India's
message must teach Pakistan's military leadership their criminal behaviour will
exact a heavy price. Security agencies have to uncover terror networks and
linkages to nail the perpetrators. It must choose targets and path carefully
while firewalling citizens from consequences.
Modi
knows only too well staying ahead is the name of the game. The nation which
survives is the one that rises to meet the moment, which has the wisdom to
recognize the threat and the will to turn it back, and does so before it is too
late. Modi has made plain: Let not any one kick India around with tall talk of
bleeding India with a thousand cuts! Will Pakistan heed? ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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